TLDR
Market Recap: December 30, 2025
On December 30, Thin year-end, monthly expiry trade kept benchmarks flat: Sensex 84,675.08 (-20, -0.02%) and Nifty 50 25,938.85 (-3.25, -0.01%). Broader risk cooled with Nifty Midcap 100 -0.15% and Nifty Smallcap 100 -0.28%, while leadership rotated into metals, PSU banks, and autos as IT and defensives lagged. Volatility eased, with the India VIX at 9.61 (-1.13%), as FIIs were net sellers (in cash) and the rupee strengthened due to rebalancing flows.
Key Drivers :
Expiry-day positioning: Month-end squaring kept the tape range-bound, with hedges and rolls dominating flows and keeping directional conviction low.
FII-DII push-pull: Foreign selling persisted, but domestic buying absorbed supply, limiting downside in frontline indices despite weak market breadth.
Cyclicals take the wheel: Metals and select financials outperformed on rotation, offsetting drag from IT and consumption names in a low-volume session.
Today’s Top Stories:
NSE cuts index F&O lot sizes from Jan series: Smaller lots reset sizing and margins, likely driving early-Jan churn in rolls and strikes.
Nifty index rejig tomorrow: Passive flow window can spike volumes and create one-day price gaps in inclusion and exclusion names.
RBI liquidity waypoints ahead: Jan 5 OMO buy and Jan 13 FX swap are the next catalysts for rates, forward premiums, and rate sensitivities.
Bharat Forge defence order: ₹1,662 crore carbine win boosts order visibility and strengthens the defence execution narrative into 2026.
Shriram Finance AAA upgrade: CARE lift after MUFG deal supports funding costs and sentiment, with markets watching spread and growth follow-through.
TOP STORIES
1. NSE cuts index F&O lot sizes (new Jan series)
Gemini-2.5
Change: Nifty 75→65, Bank Nifty 35→30, FinNifty 65→60, Midcap Select 140→120.
Why: Lowers per-lot risk; forces immediate sizing and margin recalibration for traders and brokers.
Market: Expect early-Jan churn as positions roll into new contract notionals.
NSE cuts index F&O lots. Impact?
2. Nifty index rejig goes live tomorrow
Gemini-2.5
Event: Quarterly index rebalance triggers forced passive realignment at close and next open.
Why: Flow-driven price gaps often appear in inclusion/exclusion names, then fade post-implementation.
Market: Watch delivery spikes and closing auction volatility.
Rejig day tomorrow. Trade view?
3. RBI liquidity waypoints: Jan 5 OMO, Jan 13 FX swap
Gemini-2.5
Event: RBI’s next OMO buy and longer-tenor USD-INR swap are the near-term catalysts.
Why: Liquidity and forwards impact bond yields, bank funding costs, and rate-sensitive equities.
Market: Rates desk will trade auction cut-offs and forward premium moves.
RBI OMO and FX swap ahead. Market effect?
4. Bharat Forge wins ₹1,662 cr close-quarter battle carbine order
Gemini-2.5
Order: ₹1,662 cr Defence Ministry CQB carbine contract lifts executable defence revenue visibility.
Why: Strengthens indigenisation narrative and improves odds of follow-on programs.
Market: Defence sentiment improves; milestones and margins are the durability check.
Bharat Forge CQB order. Your stance?
5. Shriram Finance gets AAA upgrade after MUFG tie-up
Gemini-2.5
Update: CARE upgrades Shriram Finance to AAA, improving liability optics post strategic partnership.
Why: Can lower borrowing costs and widen funding access for an NBFC.
Market: Stock firmed as investors priced cheaper funding and spread support.
Shriram gets AAA upgrade. What next?
GYAANI HOT TAKES
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