TLDR
Market Recap: January 30, 2026
On January 30, Indian equities snapped a 3-day rebound and closed lower ahead of the Union Budget, with risk appetite capped by a record low rupee, firm crude, and continued sensitivity to global trade headlines. The Sensex ended at 82,269.78, down 296.59 points (-0.36%), while the Nifty 50 closed at 25,320.65, down 98.25 points (-0.39%). Broader markets were mixed, with Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.19% and Nifty Smallcap 100 up 0.32%. India VIX rose to 13.61 (+1.80%), reflecting mild pre-event hedging.
Key Drivers :
Pre-Budget de-risk positioning: Traders trimmed cyclicals after a short rally, keeping the tape defensive into the Feb 1 event risk.
FX and macro caution: The rupee hit a record low despite RBI intervention, keeping imported inflation and crude sensitivity in focus.
Flows stayed at two speeds: FIIs were net buyers (+₹2,251 cr, provisional), while DIIs net sold (-₹601 cr), suggesting tactical foreign dip buying.
Today’s Top Stories:
Nestle: Volume-led beat plus tax-cut tailwinds lifted shares; staples rewarded clean execution.
Ambuja: Costs and softer pricing crushed margins; MD exit amplified downside pressure.
Vedanta: Mid-May listing target adds clarity, but execution risk stayed the price setter.
Bajaj Auto: Exports and premium mix carried earnings; domestic growth lag kept the market selective.
NTPC: Fuel savings lifted profit, but flat generation kept investors cautious on the growth profile.
TOP STORIES
1. Nestle India rewarded for clean beat and volume revival
Gemini-2.5
Print: Q3 profit +46% YoY; revenue +19%; best volume growth in nearly five years.
So what: GST cuts plus launches and rural reach drove demand; quick delivery platforms added incremental volumes.
Tape: Stock up about 4%, highest since Oct 2024, as staples execution beat cautious sentiment.
Nestle posted a clean beat with strong volumes and the stock popped. Your take?
2. Ambuja margins crack, MD exit deepens the hit
Gemini-2.5
Print: Q3 profit -88% to ₹2.04 bn; expenses +21%; prices softer despite record 17% volumes.
So what: Cost inflation plus price cuts crushed margins; leadership change raises uncertainty in integration plans.
Tape: Shares fell about 5% as investors demanded margin visibility before trusting the volume story.
Ambuja margins got crushed and the MD is stepping down. What’s your stance?
3. Vedanta demerger calendar firms up, skepticism stays
Gemini-2.5
Update: CFO targets mid-May 2026 listings; demerger effective Apr 1; four units to be spun off.
So what: Timeline clarity helps, but complexity keeps execution risk high; value unlock hinges on clean separation.
Tape: Stock slid as investors priced execution risk despite the clearer mid-May target.
$VEDL.NSE ( ▲ 2.12% )
Vedanta targets mid May listings for demerged units. How do you read the setup?
4. Bajaj Auto holds up on exports and premium mix
Gemini-2.5
Print: Q3 profit +18.7% to ₹25.03 bn; revenue +19%; slight miss versus estimates.
So what: Exports up 13.8% and premium mix carried; domestic growth lagged industry pace.
Tape: Stock was up pre results; the market watches if exports keep offsetting domestic softness.
Bajaj Auto earnings held up on exports and premium mix. What drives the next move?
5. NTPC gains on fuel relief, growth still looks modest
Gemini-2.5
Print: Q3 profit +8.4% to ₹54.89 bn as fuel costs fell 7.2%; revenue up about 2%.
So what: Cost relief helped, but generation was flat; investors want growth beyond efficiency gains.
Tape: Shares dipped as the market stayed picky on modest growth despite better margins.
NTPC profit rose on lower fuel costs, but generation was flat. Your view?
GYAANI HOT TAKES
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